Manchester City just haven’t been getting the rub of the green this season when it comes to refereeing decisions. Kyle Walker was controversially sent off for what can only be described as a largely ordinary piece of positional jostling with Everton’s Dominic Calvert-Lewin and in the following fixture, Graham Poll decided to issue Raheem Sterling a second yellow card essentially for celebrating a last-minute winner. The death of football, some say.
And unfortunately for Pep Guardiola’s side, the statistics suggest it won’t get any easier for them on Saturday when Liverpool come to the Etihad Stadium. Jurgen Klopp has dished out more defeats to the Spaniard than any manager throughout his illustrious career, and City have lost four of their last five against Liverpool in the Premier League.
Furthermore, Jonathan Moss might just be the worst referee City could encounter after those two incredibly controversial dismissals. Although the 46-year-old ranked 10th out of the 19 referees for red cards per match last season, he fared fifth for yellow cards – and City have now picked up the third-most of any Premier League side in 2017/18.
Likewise, Moss was incredibly hot on fouls last season, ranking eighth throughout the league. The statistics suggest that plays directly in Liverpool’s favour; while City have produced the tenth-most fouls in the top flight this term, the Reds rank 17th throughout the division, averaging just 8.7 per match.
Perhaps most troubling for City, however, is the number of away wins Moss oversaw last season. In theory, the majority of Premier League fixtures should end up in home victories, but a staggering 53% of games Moss officiated last term resulted in the visitors taking all three points.
That was the highest away bias of any referee in the top flight last term to officiate more than one game and has continued this season, two of Moss’ three outings – namely Huddersfield at Crystal Palace and Manchester United at Swansea – ending in away wins.
Combined with Klopp’s and Liverpool’s strong record against Guardiola and City respectively, all signs are pointing to an away win for the Reds.